South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)

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CWA # 70, 16 December 2018
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
The Maldives

  Nasima Khatoon
Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

New Government: Tough Challenge Ahead

After months of political crisis and election in September 2018, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (Ibu) of Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) was sworn in as seventh president of Maldives on 17 November. The authoritarian former president Abdulla Yameen lost the election on large margin despite an attempt to alter the election result by discrediting it in apex court. The Supreme Court dismissed the false claims made by the former president and upheld the poll result in a severe setback to the outgoing leader.

 

The President-in-the-Making: How Solih became the President?

 Solih, the Maldivian Democratic Party’s (MDP) former parliament leader, contested the election as the candidate of the four-party coalition, Jumhoori Party (JP), the Adalath Party (AP) and Maumoon Reform Movement. The MDP and the other opposition parties criticised the rebuttal of the Supreme Court ruling of the February 1, 2018 as illegal and decided to field former president Mohamed Nasheed as their common Presidential candidate. However, the election commission threatened to dissolve the MDP if its presidential primary was conducted with Nasheed as a candidate citing terrorism charges against him. Nasheed consequently renounced his party ticket and urged it to choose a replacement candidate. Accordingly, MDP’s governing statutes were amended to authorise either the congress or national council to appoint a replacement. MDP’s congress then unanimously nominated Ibrahim Solih, Member of Parliament from Hinnavaru and leader of the joint parliamentary group since the opposition coalition was formed in March 2017, as the opposition Presidential candidate. Despite the arrest of all opposition leaders before the presidential election by Yameen government, on charges of terrorism and bribery, the popularity of the opposition coalition led by the MDP had not declined. Regardless of ideological differences among political parties within the joint opposition, all had extended support to Solih.

 

Political Challenges Ahead: Economy, Democracy and Environment

The oath taking ceremony of President Solih and Vice President Faisal Naseem was administered by Chief Justice Dr Ahmed Abdulla Didi during a special parliament sitting at the national stadium in Malé.  With the victory of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in the presidential elections key promises are ahead for Solih to implement: including implementing judicial reform, restoring fundamental rights, recovering stolen assets, and seeking the truth behind unresolved murders and abductions.

Solih’s new government pledged to increase revenue and pursue free market, business-friendly policies, condemning the destruction of the environment in the name of development and to provide the lacking and most essential services of shelter, water and sewerage. In addition, selected islands, reefs and mangroves from every atoll will be declared protected areas and the proceeds from the green tax will be ring fenced to finance environmental protection. Talking about precarious state of the economy due to “many projects carried out at a loss only for political purposes”, Solih has vowed to review millions of dollars of investments from China as well as the debts taken from Chinese lenders. 

 

Foreign Policy Challenges Ahead: Chinese Debt, Neighbourhood, Renew West Asian ties  

To revive the country from dire economic condition, Solih would have to reach out to the foreign partners and in this case India can be a valued partner. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former Sri Lankan President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga were present in the ceremony among other 300 foreign dignitaries from 46 countries. The visit by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi showed New Delhi’s trust on the new administration as well as Malé’s intention to deepen bilateral relations with the long-time friendly neighbour.

Unlike the former president, Solih’s government seeks to re-establish diplomatic ties with Qatar and Iran. Maldives severed diplomatic relations with Qatar during diplomatic crisis in June 2017.  Ties with Iran were cut in 2016 when Maldives along with other Sunni Muslim countries joined Saudi Arabia in diplomatic action against the kingdom’s Shia-majority neighbour. But the present government’s policy to renew ties with Qatar and Iran, have potential to change the regional dynamics specially it has to be seen how the western world react to the policy.

On the other side, China believes the Maldives will make the “right choice” to implement a free trade agreement which was rushed through parliament in November last year but was boycotted by the opposition lawmakers. Nasheed, a senior advisor to the new president, declared the new government will scrap the “one-way treaty”, which needs to implement zero tariffs and it will create “huge trade imbalances”. The new government said it will also review the estimated US$1.5 billion worth of contracts signed with Beijing during Yameen’s term – the debt for which is greater than 40% of Maldives’ GDP. At the same time Maldives foreign minister Abdulla Shahid emphasised that China will continue to be an important partner, however neighbourhood will get priority. In this respect Modi assured Solih of India’s commitment in assisting the Maldives in achieving sustainable social and economic development. According to the ministry of external affairs, the new Maldivian foreign minister Abdulla Shahid reiterated an ‘India First’ policy during his visit to India and assured that the new administration would be “sensitive towards India’s security and strategic concerns”.

What remains to be seen is how ‘new’ Maldives treats China and the huge Chinese loan. Closer to home, India is already considering providing up to US$ 1 billion in loans to Maldives to help it pay down its debt to China and the countries are expected to discuss the matter in details during Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s maiden foreign visit to India in December 2018.  

In a scenario of mounting Chinese debt pressure on Maldives, will India be able to reassert its role as the responsible leader of South Asia and assist the strategically located archipelago to resuscitate from the harsh economic condition? In this scenario thus required is better understanding of India’s role and responsibilities to the region in order to be acknowledged by friendly neighbours first, before targeting the adversary.

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